I was on a call with an LO in Phoenix last week who told me something that I never even considered. She said, "Michael, I just realized I haven't talked to a first-time buyer in three months."

Three months.

This wasn't some veteran LO coasting on refis or sitting in a retirement community doing reverse mortgages. She's 38, hustles hard, has good realtor relationships. But her entire pipeline had shifted without her even noticing. Every deal: move-up buyer, downsizer, investor, or someone pulling equity for a renovation.

The first-time buyers? Gone.

And she's not alone. First-time buyers made up just 24% of home purchases in 2024. That's the lowest share in over 40 years. The historical average is around 40%. We're not talking about a dip. We're talking about an entire generation getting priced out.

But while everyone's wringing their hands about affordability and waiting for rates to drop, there's a different story unfolding. The buyers who ARE transacting right now are older, wealthier, and making decisions that don't fit the playbook most of us learned.

If you're still running the same plays you ran in 2019, you're leaving money on the table. That's the whole point of this post.

Who's Actually Buying Right Now

The median age of a first-time buyer hit 38 in 2024. Thirty-eight. That's up from 33 just four years ago. These aren't kids fresh out of college scraping together 3.5% down. These are people in their late thirties with established careers, dual incomes, and often significant assets.

The typical first-time buyer now puts down 9% (up from 6% historically). Household income: $97,000. And here's the kicker: 29% of them are paying all cash.

Read that again. Nearly one in three first-time buyers is skipping the mortgage entirely.

Some of that is older buyers who sold investments or inherited money. But a lot of it is people who've been renting for a decade, watching their friends build equity, and finally saying "screw it, I'm cashing out my 401k and buying this thing outright because I'm tired of getting outbid."

Repeat buyers are a different animal entirely. Median age: 61. Median income: $114,000. Equity. Strategic. Not in a hurry.

Here's what I'm seeing from the LOs I talk to every day: repeat buyers are the ones driving volume right now. They're selling a paid-off house in the Midwest and buying in Florida. They're downsizing from the 4-bedroom to a condo. They're buying investment properties because they can't get yield anywhere else. They're renovating instead of moving because their 2.8% rate is too good to give up.

This is your market right now. Not the 28-year-old couple with student loans trying to buy their first house. That couple is still renting.

The Math That Explains Why First-Timers Aren't Coming Back Soon

If you're waiting for the first-time buyer market to come roaring back, you're going to be waiting a while.

A buyer earning the median income ($97K) can afford roughly a $400K house at 6.5% rates. The median home price is $420K. They're already priced out before we even talk about student loans, car payments, or the fact that they've been paying $2,200/month in rent and can't save for a down payment.

The Fed can cut rates to 5.5% and it barely moves the needle. What first-time buyers actually need is a 30% drop in home prices or a 50% increase in wages. Neither is happening.

So what do you do? You shift your focus to the buyers who are actually transacting. And you get really, really good at serving them.

Start talking to realtors about their repeat buyer clients. Not in a generic "hey, send me your buyers" way. Get specific. Ask them: "Who's thinking about downsizing? Who's got equity and wants to move closer to family? Who's been in their house for 15+ years and is finally ready to make a change?"

These buyers are gold. Equity. Income. Credit. And they're not shopping in the same price range as first-timers, so they're not getting crushed by 47 competing offers.

But here's what they need from you: speed and certainty. A 61-year-old selling their house to downsize doesn't want to wait three weeks for a pre-approval letter. They don't want to play phone tag. They want to know right now what they can afford, what their payment will be, and whether you can close on time.

If you can deliver that, you win. If you're still running a 2019 playbook where you take two days to return a call and send a generic pre-approval letter, you lose.

The Renovation Play Nobody's Talking About

A lot of homeowners aren't moving at all. They're renovating.

Think about it. You bought your house in 2020 at 3.0%. It's worth $150K more than you paid. You've got $200K in equity. Your kids are getting older and you need another bedroom. Do you sell, give up your rate, and buy a bigger house at 6.5%? Or do you pull $80K out of your equity, add a bedroom, and keep your payment roughly the same?

The math says renovate. And that's exactly what's happening. Cash-out refinances are up. HELOCs are up. Construction loans are up. Homeowners are staying put and improving what they have.

Most LOs are completely ignoring this.

Here's a script you can steal: *"Hey [Realtor], I know the market's tough right now for move-up buyers. But I've been doing a ton of renovation loans for people who want to stay in their house and just make it work better. If you've got clients who are on the fence about moving, I'd love to show them what they could do with their equity instead. It's usually a way better deal than selling and buying up."*

You just became the realtor's favorite person. Now they can go back to that client who's been waffling for six months and say, "Hey, I talked to my lender and there's another option here." You close the loan. The realtor keeps the relationship warm. And in two years when that homeowner IS ready to move, guess who they're calling?

Investors Are Back Too

Not the 2021 iBuyer algorithmic nonsense. Real investors. People buying rental properties because they can't get 8% returns anywhere else and real estate at least feels tangible.

DSCR loans are having a moment. Portfolio lenders are getting creative. And if you're not having conversations with realtors about their investor clients, you're missing a massive chunk of the market.

Here's what I'd say: *"Do you have any clients looking at investment properties? I've got programs that don't require tax returns, don't care about DTI, and can close in three weeks. If the property cash flows, we can make it work."*

That's a different conversation than most LOs are having. And it positions you as someone who understands the full spectrum of what's happening right now, not just the vanilla purchase market.

Do This This Week

Stop waiting for the market to go back to normal. This IS normal now.

Pick three realtors you trust. Text them this: *"Hey, I've been thinking about your clients who have a ton of equity but are hesitant to move because of rates. I've got some options that might make sense. Can I buy you coffee this week and walk through a few scenarios?"*

Then show up with real numbers. Show them what a cash-out refi looks like. Show them what a HELOC costs. Show them what a DSCR loan can do for an investor. Make it tangible.

You're not pitching. You're educating. And you're positioning yourself as the LO who understands what's actually happening right now, not the one still waiting for 2019 to come back.

The LOs who win in this market are the ones who adapt. Full stop.

Cheers,

Michael

P.S. If you want to see how we're helping LOs deliver that speed and certainty I mentioned — pre-approvals from a mobile app, real-time qualification tools, the whole thing — hit me up. But honestly, the bigger point is this: know your market, serve the buyers who are actually transacting, and stop waiting for things to go back to how they used to be. They won't.